From Snow to Savanna: Examining the Weather's Influence on Military Operations in Africa

Mohamed Z. Izadine serves as Chief Operating Officer at Armaz Capital, a development advisory firm, and is COO and co-founder of Allonz-y, a tech transportation company, both based in N'Djamena, Chad. He combines expertise in international law, military justice, and national security with a deep commitment to development in sub-Saharan Africa. Izadine holds a degree in International Law and Legal Institutions from Indiana University Bloomington and completed the International Security and Intelligence program at the University of Cambridge. His military background includes service as a legal specialist in military justice and graduation from the United States Marine Corps Officer Candidates School in Quantico.

Effect of Weather on Military Operations: A Proven Track Record

The influence of weather on military operations is often underestimated. While strategic planning, tactics, and the strength of forces are usually prioritized, the climatic environment in which operations unfold can have a considerable impact. This piece focuses on the Wagner Group, a private Russian paramilitary organization, and its operations in the Central African Republic (CAR) and northern Mozambique since 2018.

In CAR, the Wagner Group helped government forces regain territory from rebels, benefiting from the consistent, hot, humid, and rainy climate. Conversely, in Mozambique, environmental conditions, including heat, heavy rainfall, and coastal storms, hindered their effectiveness against a seasoned insurgency. While political dynamics and local knowledge played roles, weather conditions were a decisive factor in these different outcomes. Beyond this case study, broader research shows that weather affects morale, logistics, and operational capabilities, often tipping the balance of conflict. Weather-related issues such as supply disruptions, seasonal variation, and logistical impediments have historically shaped military engagements. The impact of monsoons and malaria in 19th-century East Africa, for example, played a key role in indigenous forces' victories over colonial powers.

CAR and Mozambique: Comparative Analysis

The weather in CAR and northern Mozambique presents stark contrasts. CAR has a consistent tropical climate, with average temperatures around 86°F and rainfall of 3-5 inches per month. While the wet season (May to October) brings heavy rain, the climate remains stable, allowing Wagner forces to plan more effectively. In Mozambique, temperatures rise to 90°F with more volatile rainfall (2-9 inches monthly) and frequent cyclones. These erratic conditions complicated Wagner's military efforts, especially when major rainfall undermined offensives or when storms, like Cyclone Gombe, disrupted insurgent logistics. The constant adverse weather in Mozambique left Wagner with fewer opportunities to capitalize on favourable conditions.

CAR

CAR has faced instability since independence in 1960, culminating in civil war in 2013. The Wagner Group began operations in 2018, supporting the government’s military against rebels. In CAR, Wagner's success often correlated with favourable weather—especially during the dry season, when minimal rainfall allowed for better mobility and execution of operations. In contrast, the rainy season posed challenges, hindering movement and logistics, and preventing the group from maintaining control over some territories.

Mozambique

In northern Mozambique, the Islamic State-linked insurgency in Cabo Delgado posed a significant challenge to Wagner forces, who arrived in 2019. The humid, rainy climate made it difficult for Wagner to maintain momentum, with persistent wet conditions and difficult terrain limiting mobility. Local factors, including the insurgents' familiarity with the terrain and the socio-political context, added to the complexity, making it harder for Wagner to succeed compared to its operations in CAR.

Counterarguments and Alternative Factors

Some argue that political and strategic factors better explain the divergent outcomes in CAR and Mozambique. In CAR, Wagner benefited from a close partnership with the government, providing intelligence and auxiliary forces. By contrast, Wagner lacked such advantages in Mozambique, where the local insurgents were more motivated and knowledgeable of the terrain. Additionally, Mozambique's socio-political issues, such as grievances over resource distribution, could have been more impactful than the weather alone. While weather certainly played a role, it did not fully explain the contrasting outcomes.

The Decarbonization Angle

While strategic and political factors are undeniably important, the impact of climate cannot be overlooked. The relatively predictable and stable tropical climate in CAR provided the Wagner Group with advantageous conditions that facilitated mobility and logistical efficiency, particularly during the dry season. In contrast, the unpredictable, rain-soaked, and storm-prone environment in northern Mozambique created substantial barriers to the group’s operations, impeding movement, disrupting supply lines, and diminishing their effectiveness. These climatic challenges compounded the difficulties of operating in a region beset by a complex insurgency and dense, challenging terrain. Whether in CAR or Mozambique, the ability to adapt to the local climate often made the difference between success and failure.

As we see more and more industries, even those historically resistant to change, start to embrace sustainable practices, we often wonder what would happen if the military and defence sectors in Sub-Saharan Africa followed suit. Militaries in this region often rely on carbon-intensive fuel sources, particularly for transportation and heavy equipment. Thus, by transitioning to renewable energy solutions and adopting cleaner technologies, these forces could reduce their environmental footprint while potentially lowering operational costs in the long term. Beyond cost savings, one of the most promising benefits of decarbonizing African militaries is the increased resilience it could bring in the face of climate change. With more extreme weather events like storms and droughts becoming commonplace across the continent, renewable technologies such as solar-powered drones and electric vehicles could help keep military operations running smoothly when conditions would otherwise disrupt them. These energy-efficient solutions would also make the military less vulnerable to the volatile pricing and supply chain issues tied to fossil fuels, which often hinder operations during times of crisis.

There’s no shortage of innovative technologies that could drive this transformation, from solar-powered vehicles and electric drones to biofuels made from local agricultural waste. What’s especially exciting is that many of these solutions are already becoming more affordable and could be customized to fit the unique needs of African nations. Imagine solar energy powering military bases or surveillance systems in remote areas, lessening the reliance on fuel that often has to be transported over long, difficult distances. This kind of shift would not just benefit the military—it would set a powerful example for other sectors within these countries, showing that sustainable practices and technologies are not only viable but essential, even in contexts where infrastructure and energy access are often limited.

Moreover, embracing renewable technologies could open doors to international collaborations, fostering innovation and driving economic growth. By modernizing their military sectors and investing in efficiency, African nations would not only be strengthening their defence capabilities but also reducing the environmental toll of military activities, ultimately contributing to a more sustainable future both for their people and the planet.